Why is Taiwan voting for 'Great Memory'?

Taiwan’s opposition Kuomintang (KMT) party is in a moment of crisis as nearly two-thirds of its lawmakers risk losing their seats in a mass referendum.

This weekend, voters in 31 districts in Taiwan will weigh in on whether to keep or remove their members from parliament.

The “Great Recall,” as it has been dubbed locally, is the largest vote of its kind in Taiwan’s history and, depending on the outcome, could cost the KMT its majority coalition in the country’s legislature.

The outcome will set the tone for Taiwan’s domestic politics for the next three years and will also shape President William Lai Cheng’s government’s ability to act on key issues, such as defense spending.

When will the elections be held?

On Saturday, eligible voters can participate in recall elections for 24 KMT lawmakers, followed by a second round of voting for seven KMT lawmakers in late August.

The recall is being called after a wave of successful petition campaigns earlier this year. Under Taiwan’s election laws, organizers must secure signatures from 10 percent of a district’s registered voters to recall them.

For a recall vote to be successful, each district must have 25 percent of registered voters participating, and the recall must win more votes than that.

If voters choose to recall a lawmaker, a by-election must be held within three months.

The KMT’s traditional stronghold is in the north of the country and is mainly around the capital, Taipei, but the recall will be held across Taiwan this weekend.

The KMT won 52 of the 113 seats in the legislature in 2024, and with the Taiwan People's Party and two independent lawmakers, has a majority coalition of 62 seats.

This coalition has been strong enough to hold off the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which has 51 seats, and to block DPP President Lai's agenda of nationalization during his first year in office.

Can memory succeed?

Liu Nachman, an expert on Taiwanese politics at National Taiwan University, said that Taiwan usually has a high voter turnout during major elections, but the recall vote is much higher.

"Our previous experience should tell us not to let them pass," he told Al Jazeera, referring to the widespread turnout of ordinary people. "We are in a bit of an unusual time."

Ho Chi-ying, a KMT member and former party spokesman, told Al Jazeera that the recall campaign had created a "national electoral climate" that would test the mobilisation and engagement of Taiwan's major political parties.

He said the weather could also tip the scales, as a tropical storm was passing north of Taiwan, and bad weather could discourage the KMT's old voter base from going out to vote.

Why is voting by memory international news?

Nachman said the vote will determine whether Lai Lam Dick will be president for the next three years, and whether he has the ability to make major defense and foreign policy decisions.

“Unfortunately, this is a really big deal because every question that foreign policy people have is whether these memories are successful or not,” he said.

The issue is of global importance because of Taiwan’s contested political status and the threat of future conflict with China in the Taiwan Strait.

“The classic problem with Taiwan is that it’s not just that there’s a division in society, it’s that there’s a division in society, and the clock is ticking as to whether there’s going to be a war in this place or not,” he added.

“Everything here is infinitely more existential.”

Are voters targeting KMT?

Despite its success in the previous election, winning 14 seats, the KMT has angered and even alienated traditional supporters by expanding its legislative powers and targeting President Lai’s budget.

The KMT majority in the legislature was able to freeze or cut NT$207.5 billion (then worth NT$6.3 billion) from the LDA’s 2025 budget.

The budget battle made headlines in Taiwan, but attracted international attention when the KMT targeted NT$3.1 billion in defense spending.

Brian Hawai, a non-resident fellow at the University of Nottingham’s Taiwan Research Hub and a frequent observer of Taiwanese politics, said some of the cuts angered a cross-section of voters and groups traditionally aligned with the KMT, such as farmers and indigenous voters.

“The KMT has done very badly and angered all these random demographics by cutting the budget,” he said.

“It was just very unwise,” he added.

What about the China element?

The KMT is one of Asia’s oldest political parties, but a genocidal standoff over Taiwan’s relations with China is challenging its long-standing position in Taiwanese politics. Some observers believe the party is supported by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in Beijing.

The CCP has threatened to one day annex Taiwan by force or by peaceful means, and Taiwan’s two main political parties offer different approaches to responding to Beijing’s threat.

Chairman Lai’s DPP has taken a more assertive approach by advocating for Taiwan on the international stage and increasing defense spending, while the KMT follows a more conciliatory stance that favors ongoing dialogue with China.

Concerns surrounding China have unsettled some of the KMT's most prominent members in the past, such as party whip Fu Kun-chi, who controversially led a delegation of lawmakers to Beijing last year at a time of significant political tension in the Taiwan Strait.

What does KMT say?

Hu, a party member and former KMT spokesman, said that the recall supporters are abusing a system designed to remove those deemed unfit to hold office for serious reasons, such as corruption.

“This ‘mass recall’ campaign is not driven by the individual performance of KMT lawmakers, but is instead a blanket effort to oust opposition lawmakers across the board,” Hu said.

“To further this effort, the DPP has deliberately framed the KMT as ‘pro-China’ and accused it of ‘selling out to Taiwan,’ which is designed to inflame ideological divisions and mobilize its base through fear and hostility, thus increasing the likelihood that the recall vote will pass,” he said.

A senior member of the KMT party also told Al Jazeera that voters are looking for an outlet for their frustrations in rising prices and economic tensions resulting from US President Donald Trump's trade war and threat of tariffs on Taiwan.

Trump has threatened to impose tariffs of up to 32 percent on the island nation's export-driven economy. Over the past six months, the new Taiwan dollar has appreciated by 11 percent, hitting the bottom line of thousands of small and medium-sized domestic manufacturers who must compete to make foreign goods cheaper for Taiwanese consumers as their dollar gains more in spending power.